Why Alexander Semin Needs a Center

Alexander Semin (Александр Валерьевич Сёмин, Pronounced "Syomin") is a remarkably talented hockey player.  He has a skill set to rival anyone's in hockey right now.  He has amazing puck control, slick passing ability, and a shot that most goalies don't see until it's too late.  Some people may question his desire and discipline, but that does not change his impact on hockey games:  he can blow a game open at any moment.  This forces opposing coaches to pay attention to him and draw some of the defensive pressure away from top-line winger Alex Ovechkin.

#28 Alexander Semin

Semin's greatest asset is his ability to create goals without a nice set-up pass.  He scores a large number of his goals this way, much the way Ovechkin did his first couple years in the league.

 

Semin Hat Trick

This begs the question:  if Semin is so good, why couldn't he score in the playoffs?  While Semin definitely had a few chances he should have buried among his first-round leading 44 shots, I would argue Semin did not have a playmaking center who could get him the puck in space to make a play.  My argument is if Semin had a regular center capable of producing at least 20 goals and 40 assists per year, Semin would be a 50 goal and 100 point per season player.  To make this argument, I examine Semin against his teammates and against a relevant example in the NHL.

Boyd Gordon's Past and Future

Washington Capitals checking forward Boyd Gordon is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights this summer.  He made $761,250 last season.  In order to retain his services, the Capitals will have to tender him at least a 1-year qualifying offer of 110% of his 2009-10 salary, which equates to $837,375.  Judging by his history and his recent season, all indications point to him accepting his qualifying offer. 

#15 Boyd Gordon

Russia Defeats Canada 5-2 at Worlds

Olympic golden boys Team Canada fell 5-2 to Team Russia in the Quarterfinal round at the IIHF World Championships in Cologne, Germany today, in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicates.  Washington Capitals goaltender Semyon Varlamov held the Canadians scoreless until there was 6:08 left in the game after the Russians stormed out to a 4-0 lead on goals by Maxim Afinogenov, Pavel Datsyuk, Evgeni Malkin, and Sergei Fedorov.  John Tavares broke the shutout for Canada before Malkin added an empty net goal.  Matt Duchene added a goal for Canada with 14 seconds left for the final margin.  [Pictures]

#40 Semyon Varlamov

Eric Fehr's Contract

Now that Washington Capitals General Manager George McPhee has signed his top priority this offseason in Nicklas Backstrom, he can begin to focus on his other pieces.

Capitals 3rd line right winger Eric Fehr is a restricted free agent this summer.  He made $771,750 last season.  In order to retain his services, the Capitals will have to tender him at least a 1-year Qualifying Offer of 110% of his 2009-10 Salary, which equates to $848,925.  Judging by other forwards around the league, Eric Fehr should be offered a multi-year contract worth quite a bit more than that. 

 #16 Eric Fehr

Remember Sergei Fedorov?

Sergei Fedorov left the Capitals in May 2009 to play with his brother Fedor in Russia after a season and a quarter as the second line center, but when offered the chance to play with his younger brother.  With Fedorov turning 40 in December and the Capitals not offering him the $4 Million they did for the 2008-09 season, it was likely his last chance to make some real money before he retired.

 #91 Sergei Fedorov

When he was acquired from the Columbus Blue Jackets on February 26, 2008, Fedorov brought a veteran presence to the lineup and served as a mentor for many of the younger players, particularly the Russians.  He stabilized the forward lines after the injury to #2 center Michael Nylander and gave Caps coach Bruce Boudreau a second scoring threat at center to relieve the pressure on rookie center Nicklas Backstrom.  A sure-fire Hall of Famer, Fedorov had been one of the most dominant centers in the NHL for years, a physical specimen in his prime who scored 483 goals and 1,179 points, not to mention winning the 1994 MVP and 3 Stanley Cups and another 176 points in 183 playoff games.  He brought confidence and a swagger to the dressing room, but he was a shell of his former self, and as the 2009 playoffs closed, he was gassed after playing too many minutes. 

What Next Year's Team Should Look Like

Time to get over the loss to Montreal and start to look forward to next year. This is what I think next year's team should be and why.

(cap figures provided by www.nhlnumbers.com)

Forwards

Signed for 2010-2011

Alex Ovechkin $9,000,000, an elite player in the game, a must have for any great team.

Alex Semin, $6,000,000, a very talented but the caps should be very careful about a long term deal.

Mike Knuble $2,800,000, a great veteran player, and fits in well on the top line.

Brooks Laich, $2,400,000, a heart and soul guy and can play on any line.

Jason Chimera, $1,875,000, a fast gritty forward that every team would love to have.

Matt Bradley, $1,000,000, tough guy, a leader and not too expensive.

David Steckel, $1,100,000, good 3rd or 4th line center and a great face off guy.

Mathieu Perreault, $650,000, he could be a future second line centre.

Philadelphia-Washington Regular Season Series

Washington Capitals Record vs. Philadelphia Flyers:  3-0-1

 vs.

The Games
October 6 in Philadelphia:  5-6 Overtime Loss
Goalies:  Ray Emery vs. Semyon Varlamov and Jose Theodore
Caps PP: 1/5, Caps PK 5/8
Shots For: 36, Shots Against: 41
Game Winner:  Daniel Briere
Notes:  Mike Richards had a hat trick, Matt Carle had 4 assists, Matt Bradley fought Ian Laperriere, Varlamov was pulled midway through the game after allowing 4 goals. 


October 27 in Washington:  4-1 Win
Goalies:  Ray Emery vs. Jose Theodore
Caps PP: 1/3, Caps PK 3/5
Shots For: 36, Shots Against: 43
Game Winner:  Alexander Semin
Notes:  Nicklas Backstrom scored 4 points, Jose Theodore stopped Darroll Powe on a penalty shot. 

Elimination Game

There were 18 individual Capitals out there instead of a team in Game 6.  The Caps have got to play like a team, crash the net for rebounds, deflections and screens and stop making a decent goalie look like a god.  Jaroslav Halak is not Patrick Roy or Ken Dryden, Joe Beninati and Craig Laughlin need to tone it down.  The Caps didn't exactly make it difficult for him, they let him see the shots, they let him get set for shots, didn't get second chances, and when they did, they put the puck into his leg pads or his chest.  Alexander Semin 15 feet from the goal with nobody within 10 feet of him should be an automatic goal, and Semin shot it like his kid sister was in the goal and he didn't want to hurt her feelings.  Yeah there were a few bounces that didn't do the Capitals' way, but it's funny you only seem to notice them when you're losing. Get traffic on Halak and make him uncomfortable, then tell me he looks like Patrick Roy. 

Montreal-Washington Regular Season Series

The Games:
November 20 in Washington:  2-3 Loss
Goalies:  Price vs. Neuvirth
Caps PP: 0/3, Caps PK 1/2
Shots For: 34, Shots Against: 22
Game Winner:  Mike Cammalleri

Capitals Regular Season Recap

My prediction for the Capitals season was not quite what transpired.  On September 30, I predicted a 57-17-8 regular season for 122 points and 1st place in the East, which includes winning the Southeast Division.  The Capitals finished 54-15-13 for 121 points and 1st in the Southeast, 1st in the East plus 1st in the League.  I also predicted the Capitals would play Ottawa in the first round, Philadelphia in the second round and Pittsburgh in the third round.  As usual, my western prediction was wrong, I picked Anaheim to play in the Final. 

 The President's Trophy

The Capitals set team records for the most wins (54), most points (121), most road wins (24), most road points (55), most home points (66), and tied for most home wins (30).  The led the league in goals (313) and goal differential (+85).  They has the league's best powerplay by far (25.2%) and scored the most powerplay goals (79).  They led the league in goals in each period of play (92, 103, and 112).  The finished second in overtime goals (6).  They led the league in home wins (30-5-6) and tied for the lead in road wins (24-10-7).  This marked a dominating season by the Capitals. 

Capitals 6, Penguins 3

On another night when the Capitals seemingly had nothing to play for, they sure played well against a team that had quite a bit to play for.  The Pittsburgh Penguins were playing one of their last games in their old arena and Sidney Crosby was turbocharged with 3 points to reach 100 for the season.  They kept turning pucks over and their goalie couldn't get the job done, and even though the referees only called one penalty on them, the Capitals made them pay.

Alex Semin

Senators 5, Capitals 4 (OT)

The Capitals had yet another poor start tonight, but something changed:  the Caps scored a goal in the first period, and that made a huge difference.  After falling behind 1-0, the Caps got a fancy goal on a silly individual effort by Alexander Semin, who ripped a shot through Ottawa goalie Brian Elliott while on the powerplay to even the score at 1.  Semin got himself across the blueline after the Caps had had trouble setting up on the powerplay and with a little subterfuge on a fake spin move, he got himself into space before ripping a shot 5 hole, off the wrong foot, of course.

The Caps then fell behind 3-1 before the end of the period.

Capitals 4, Penguins 3 (SO)

Since he has become the Washington Capitals head coach, we have come to trust Bruce Boudreau's hunches.  From sticking with Eric Fehr and Tomas Fleischmann when they were struggling to Fleischmann's move to center, to playing Alex Semin and Nick Backstrom on the penalty kill, Boudreau has shown time and again why he is the best hockey coach alive.  So when he sent Mike Knuble out in the shootout, we knew he had his reasons.

Capitals 3, Lightning 1

Tonight Alex Ovechkin returned from a league-mandated hiatus of 2 games. He returned with a vengeance, scoring the game-winning goal on a breakaway from a bank-pass from Nicklas Backstrom at 10:47 of the first period to break a 1-1 tie.  He fired 7 shots on net, loosed 6 more that missed or were blocked, and he had 1 hit in 22:52 of ice time.  Ovie is back.

Nicklas Backstrom's Worth

Capitals #1 center Nicklas Backstrom is due a big pay raise come July 1 when he becomes a restricted free agent.  Talks on a new contract are in progress and the two sides appear relatively close to a deal.  Trying to figure out his worth based on recently awarded contracts for comparable players is an interesting exercise, but one must also consider the salary structure on the Capitals.  Next season, Alex Ovechkin is due $9 million, Alexander Semin is due $6 million, and Mike Green is due $5 million.

The next question is term:  Ovechkin is signed for another 11 seasons, Semin is UFA after next season, and Green is on for another 2 seasons.  Where does Backstrom fit in this scheme?  One could argue he's somewhere between Semin and Ovechkin based on his role and production.

Moving On Up - Caps Records

Several Washington Capitals are posting Top-10 statistical seasons in franchise history.  Alexander Ovechkin is sitting at #7 on the single season scoring list this season after leapfrogging Mike Gartner and Bob Carpenter with 2 assists versus Tampa Bay.  Ovechkin now owns half of the top ten best point scoring seasons by a Capital, though with 10 more points this season, Nicklas Backstrom will make the list.

	Points	Year	P
1	Dennis Maruk	1981-82	136
2	Alex Ovechkin	2007-08	112
3	Alex Ovechkin	2008-09	110
4	Alex Ovechkin*	2005-06	106
5	Mike Gartner	1984-85	102
6	Dennis Maruk	1980-81	97
7	Alex Ovechkin	2009-10	96
8	Bob Carpenter	1984-85	95
9	Mike Gartner	1980-81	94
10	Alex Ovechkin	2006-07	92

*Denotes rookie