Response to Peerless

I applaud our friend over at The Peerless Prognosticator for his well-researched and thorough post on experience on defense being a major factor when it comes to success in the playoffs in the past decade. Of the ten Stanley Cup defenses he profiled, I would argue the Capitals are most similar to the 2000 New Jersey Devils with their two rookies and the 2004 Tampa Bay Lightning, who only had one real veteran but an otherwise overlooked but quick, puck-moving defense corps.  Many of those teams, though, traded for at least one experienced blueliner during the season. I agree with Peerless that we could stand an upgrade over Tyler Sloan, but even so, there is still hope. 

Why Alexander Semin Needs a Center

Alexander Semin (Александр Валерьевич Сёмин, Pronounced "Syomin") is a remarkably talented hockey player.  He has a skill set to rival anyone's in hockey right now.  He has amazing puck control, slick passing ability, and a shot that most goalies don't see until it's too late.  Some people may question his desire and discipline, but that does not change his impact on hockey games:  he can blow a game open at any moment.  This forces opposing coaches to pay attention to him and draw some of the defensive pressure away from top-line winger Alex Ovechkin.

#28 Alexander Semin

Semin's greatest asset is his ability to create goals without a nice set-up pass.  He scores a large number of his goals this way, much the way Ovechkin did his first couple years in the league.

 

Semin Hat Trick

This begs the question:  if Semin is so good, why couldn't he score in the playoffs?  While Semin definitely had a few chances he should have buried among his first-round leading 44 shots, I would argue Semin did not have a playmaking center who could get him the puck in space to make a play.  My argument is if Semin had a regular center capable of producing at least 20 goals and 40 assists per year, Semin would be a 50 goal and 100 point per season player.  To make this argument, I examine Semin against his teammates and against a relevant example in the NHL.

NHL Awards

The NHL presented their annual awards last night in Las Vegas.  The full voting results are here.  At the end of the regular season, I made my predictions for the award finalists and winners.  Let's see how I did. 

The Vezina Trophy is an annual award given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position as voted by the general managers of all NHL clubs.

Predicted order of finish:
1. Ryan Miller, Buffalo Sabres
2. Martin Brodeur, New Jersey Devils
3. Ilya Bryzgalov, Phoenix Coyotes

And the winner is:

Anton Volchenkov: Future Capital?

Unrestricted free agent (UFA) hunting season begins July 1.  The Washington Capitals do not have tons of holes to plug that they can't fill from within.  They could stand to upgrade in a couple of important positions, most notably the #2 center position and some would argue the team needs the ever-elusive "shut-down" defenseman, also called a "minute-muncher" or a "crease-clearer."  The #2 center vacancy is real, but how real is the need for another defenseman?  I would argue the Capitals do not need another big-time defenseman and the real vacancy is at the #6 defenseman spot. 

Minute-Muncher

Crease-Clearer

Jeff Schultz's Contract

Washington Capitals top-pairing defenseman Jeff Schultz is a restricted free agent this summer.  He made $715,000 last season.  In order to retain his services, the Capitals will have to tender him at least a 1-year qualifying offer of 110% of his 2009-10 salary, which equates to $786,500.  Judging by other young defensemen around the league, Schultz should earn quite a bit more than that, a multi-year deal in the millions.

#55 Jeff Schultz

What Next Year's Team Should Look Like

Time to get over the loss to Montreal and start to look forward to next year. This is what I think next year's team should be and why.

(cap figures provided by www.nhlnumbers.com)

Forwards

Signed for 2010-2011

Alex Ovechkin $9,000,000, an elite player in the game, a must have for any great team.

Alex Semin, $6,000,000, a very talented but the caps should be very careful about a long term deal.

Mike Knuble $2,800,000, a great veteran player, and fits in well on the top line.

Brooks Laich, $2,400,000, a heart and soul guy and can play on any line.

Jason Chimera, $1,875,000, a fast gritty forward that every team would love to have.

Matt Bradley, $1,000,000, tough guy, a leader and not too expensive.

David Steckel, $1,100,000, good 3rd or 4th line center and a great face off guy.

Mathieu Perreault, $650,000, he could be a future second line centre.

Capitals Regular Season Recap

My prediction for the Capitals season was not quite what transpired.  On September 30, I predicted a 57-17-8 regular season for 122 points and 1st place in the East, which includes winning the Southeast Division.  The Capitals finished 54-15-13 for 121 points and 1st in the Southeast, 1st in the East plus 1st in the League.  I also predicted the Capitals would play Ottawa in the first round, Philadelphia in the second round and Pittsburgh in the third round.  As usual, my western prediction was wrong, I picked Anaheim to play in the Final. 

 The President's Trophy

The Capitals set team records for the most wins (54), most points (121), most road wins (24), most road points (55), most home points (66), and tied for most home wins (30).  The led the league in goals (313) and goal differential (+85).  They has the league's best powerplay by far (25.2%) and scored the most powerplay goals (79).  They led the league in goals in each period of play (92, 103, and 112).  The finished second in overtime goals (6).  They led the league in home wins (30-5-6) and tied for the lead in road wins (24-10-7).  This marked a dominating season by the Capitals. 

NHL Awards Predictions

It's the end of the NHL regular season, it's the time of year when hockey writers, general managers and players write their ballots for the shiny trophies to be handed out in June.  The finalists for these awards will be announced during the playoffs, and here are my predictions for those awards, ranked in expected order of finish. 

The Vezina Trophy is an annual award given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position as voted by the general managers of all NHL clubs.

Capitals 3, Bruins 2 (OT)

The Capitals won in dramatic fashion on a night they could have let one slip away.  After having already secured the top seed in the league the Caps could have mailed in the final four games; even Mike Green had the night off.  But sensing this might be an opponent they'd see in the first round of the playoffs, they smelled blood and attacked.

The Capitals jumped out to a quick lead, although quick may be too generous of a word.  Nicklas Backstrom took a shot that dribbled through the goalie Tuukka Rask's pads.  When Alex Ovechkin, who had set up the goal with a sublime cross-ice feed, saw the puck trickling toward the goal line, he started the celebration.   The goal came at 7:36 into the game, and the video review took just as long.  It seems likely that if referee Bill McCreary had not emphatically gestured for a goal it would have been disallowed, marking the first time in recent memory he has helped the Capitals.

Caps Notes 3/30/10 - Perreault Continues to Impress

-Congratulations to Jason Chimera, who recorded his 100th NHL assist last night on Mike Green's goal.

-Mathieu Perreault continues to make his case:  he already has as many goals (4) and points (9) this season as Alexandre Giroux has in his entire NHL career.  I think I know which one won't be recalled again this year.

Perreault already knows how to celebrate like a pro.

-We'll need Boyd Gordon's 60.1% faceoff win percentage come playoff time. After Gordon and 4th line center David Steckel (59.7%, 609 of 1020), the Capitals faceoff leaders are Brendan Morrison (51.2%, 486 of 948) and Nicklas Backstrom (49.9%, 620 of 1242).   Yikes.

Senators 5, Capitals 4 (OT)

The Capitals had yet another poor start tonight, but something changed:  the Caps scored a goal in the first period, and that made a huge difference.  After falling behind 1-0, the Caps got a fancy goal on a silly individual effort by Alexander Semin, who ripped a shot through Ottawa goalie Brian Elliott while on the powerplay to even the score at 1.  Semin got himself across the blueline after the Caps had had trouble setting up on the powerplay and with a little subterfuge on a fake spin move, he got himself into space before ripping a shot 5 hole, off the wrong foot, of course.

The Caps then fell behind 3-1 before the end of the period.

Capital Inflation - New Career Highs

Much has been made of the tremendous offensive season the Capitals are having collectively and the scoring exploits of certain team members, but I thought it would be instructive to show just how many career seasons are going on right now for the Caps:

-Nicklas Backstrom has set a new career high in Goals (29) and Points (89).  His previous highs set last season were 22 Goals and 88 Points.

-Eric Belanger has set new career highs in Assists (25) and Points (39).  His previous highs were 24 Assists and 37 Points.

Nicklas Backstrom's Worth

Capitals #1 center Nicklas Backstrom is due a big pay raise come July 1 when he becomes a restricted free agent.  Talks on a new contract are in progress and the two sides appear relatively close to a deal.  Trying to figure out his worth based on recently awarded contracts for comparable players is an interesting exercise, but one must also consider the salary structure on the Capitals.  Next season, Alex Ovechkin is due $9 million, Alexander Semin is due $6 million, and Mike Green is due $5 million.

The next question is term:  Ovechkin is signed for another 11 seasons, Semin is UFA after next season, and Green is on for another 2 seasons.  Where does Backstrom fit in this scheme?  One could argue he's somewhere between Semin and Ovechkin based on his role and production.

Moving On Up - Caps Records

Several Washington Capitals are posting Top-10 statistical seasons in franchise history.  Alexander Ovechkin is sitting at #7 on the single season scoring list this season after leapfrogging Mike Gartner and Bob Carpenter with 2 assists versus Tampa Bay.  Ovechkin now owns half of the top ten best point scoring seasons by a Capital, though with 10 more points this season, Nicklas Backstrom will make the list.

	Points	Year	P
1	Dennis Maruk	1981-82	136
2	Alex Ovechkin	2007-08	112
3	Alex Ovechkin	2008-09	110
4	Alex Ovechkin*	2005-06	106
5	Mike Gartner	1984-85	102
6	Dennis Maruk	1980-81	97
7	Alex Ovechkin	2009-10	96
8	Bob Carpenter	1984-85	95
9	Mike Gartner	1980-81	94
10	Alex Ovechkin	2006-07	92

*Denotes rookie

Capitals 4, Hurricanes 3 (OT)

Capitals winger Tomas Fleischmann swung his stick against the boards in frustration early in the second period.  He had just missed a golden opportunity:  Hurricanes goalie Manny Legace was out of position and Fleischmann had the puck on his stick.  He had tried to thread the puck through defenseman Brian Pothier's skates, but his former teammate deflected the puck to Legace who smothered the chance.  This was Pothier's second defensive play on Fleischmann in less than a minute; he broke up a pass from Alexander Ovechkin that would have been an easy tap-in for Fleischmann if not for Pothier's quick stick.  Fleischmann was reaching a new level of frustration, only 1 goal in his last 15 games, not including 1 goal in 5 Olympic Games that ended with the Czech Republic bowing out much earlier than anyone had anticipated, never mind that the Hurricanes had two members of the Finnish Olympic Team that had knocked him out of the tournament.  

Fleischmann's streak of futility also did not include the previous game two nights ago when he was made a healthy scratch by the coach who had shown so much faith in him, and after Fleischmann had recorded an assist the game before.  Fleischmann had also been the recipient of an unfortunate tripping call in the first period when a Hurricane player had stepped on his stick, and he was on the ice when the Hurricanes scored their first goal of the game late in the first period, 18 seconds after the Caps had scored to make it 2-0.  So when Tomas Fleischmann fired his fifth shot on Legace 3:20 into overtime, he may not have been expecting his luck to change so quickly, but his one-time shot on a patient play by center Eric Belanger found the back of the net to end the game and a long period of frustration for the Caps winger-turned-center-turned-winger.  "Flash" made a statement to the coaching staff with his career best-tying 19th goal that he was back, ready for action, and would not be happy sitting on the bench.

The Carolina Hurricanes came to town armed with the knowledge that they were the last team to beat Washington in their own barn in regulation, and they were a desperate team trying to claw their way into playoff contention after appearing in the Eastern Conference Final last season.  They also had two players late of the Capitals on their roster who would be eager to show up their old team:  Pothier and Oskar Osala, both wearing numbers held sacred in DC (#5 and #32, respectively).  They walked away with a point to aid them in their chase of a playoff spot because the Capitals continuously allowed them back into the game.

Mike Green, named third star of the game for his two powerplay goals on the night, also gave the Hurricanes a couple goals back and had an amazing capacity to make strong parts of the team look bad.  On the Hurricanes second goal, Green, skating in the corner behind his own goal line, eschewed the safe breakout pass up the boards to an open Mike Knuble, instead trying to rifle a pass up the middle to center Nicklas Backstrom.  The pass was picked off by Chad LaRose who promptly victimized a flat-footed Jeff Schultz on a quick 2-on-1 with Tuomo Ruutu, fresh off a bronze medal performance with the Finnish Olympic Team.  Ruutu took LaRose's pass and buried it past Caps goalie Jose Theodore, who otherwise had a very strong outing.

The Hurricanes' third goal came on the powerplay on a night when the Caps had finally figured out how to pressure the opposing team and neutralize the man advantage.  Boyd Gordon, normally responsible for covering the point man, had tracked the puck carrying winger Ruutu along the half-boards.  As the puck made its way to the point, Gordon recovered and moved to the front of the net. With the puck at the point, Green turned his back to the play and skated toward the goal instead of challenging the point man.  At this point all four Capitals were within 20 feet of each other and within 10 feet of the goal, all covering one man.  Needless to say, Jussi Jokinen roofed Ruutu's pass past Theodore from the top of the circle, and he had all day to do it.

Green had other egregious errors on the night that his goaltender bailed him out on, perhaps leading to speculation that Mike Green was played too much at 26:22.  He pinched in on a powerplay and didn't recover in time to prevent a Brandon Sutter breakaway, nor did his teammates cover his vacant point.  Green tripped Sutter on the ensuing breakaway to give the young Hurricanes center a penalty shot, which Theodore denied.  Theodore also cleaned up the garbage when Green left Zach Boychuk wide open in front for an excellent scoring chance when he didn't check his surroundings and dickered with and ultimately missed a centering pass from the corner that went right past him to the deep slot about 10 feet from Theodore.  He also gave Eric Staal a wondrous scoring chance late in the second period when his clearing attempt ricocheted to the middle.  It almost seemed like he was thinking about getting a hat trick over playing defense.

Other notes on the night:

-Brendan Morrison looked good.  He had a nice bank-pass assist on Alex Semin's forehand-backhand cross-crease goal and he was buzzing around the crease all night and finished with a shot, a blocked shot, and was 9 for 17, or 53%, on faceoffs.

-Boudreau needs to keep David Steckel and Matt Bradley together.  They have great chemistry on offense and are very responsible in their own end.  Steckel also went 73% on faceoffs (8 for 11) and had a hilarious scoring chance while shorthanded that involved Manny Legace falling down behind his net.

-It was a nice gesture by Bruce Boudreau to start Scott Walker and Joe Corvo, recently of the Hurricanes.

-Boudreau also timed his timeout very well on the icing in overtime.  The Caps scored a minute and a half later.

-Ovechkin looked great on the powerplay, at least offensively.  He was as much to blame for the Sutter breakaway as Green was and left Theodore out to dry on another occasion, but his passing and shooting from the point reminded us why he's back there and why he led the league in powerplay scoring last season.  Ovie was also whistled for offsides a couple times when he got too eager and got involved in the physical play late in the game.  The rest of the top line looked good, too, they had good pressure and Backstrom had two assists, including a sublime saucer pass to set up Green's first goal.

-Was the Hurricanes' defense that slow tonight or was Brooks Laich that fast?  He got behind their defense for breakaways three separate times and drew a penalty and finished with 5 shots on the night.  Semin victimized their D for a goal, and drew a penalty with his hustle by getting around a defenseman.

-I liked having two net crashers on the powerplay.  Mike Green scored through a screen of Brooks Laich and Mike Knuble.

-As bad as Green was, Corvo was caught flat-footed at the blueline and let Ray Whitney have a glorious chance and also had a bad pinch in the second period on the powerplay.  Tom Poti let himself get boxed out on Carolina's first goal and couldn't recover to eliminate Patrick Dwyer, who had all day, it seemed, to bury his rebound.

-The Caps took their foot off the gas at the end of the first period and into the second and let Carolina back in the game.  The overlooked a worthy opponent, for whatever reason, with a 2 goal lead.  They have to realize there are no Cops to pull them over for speeding, they need to play hockey like they drive, pedal to the metal all the time, and coasting gets you in trouble.

-Is it just me or did Craig Laughlin's keys to the game remind you to do the dishes?  It sounded like he said to clean out the grease from the pressure cooker.